Our Burning Planet Isn’t Ready for Another “Super El Niño”

New climate modeling predictions released this week from multiple research centers seem to confirm what some were already expecting: El Niño is likely on its way in 2026. That would be worrying climate news all on its own, given that March absolutely smashed most every heat record we had on the books for the month, but it sounds like this time around, “the boy” may in fact be “the man,” in the form of an unusual powerful “super El Niño” bringing climate consequences that could be felt for years, all over the globe. And we are absolutely not ready for that, as the U.S. is still reeling from one of the warmest and driest winters it has ever experienced. Welcome to the climate catastrophe unfolding in plain view but below the fold, totally unacknowledged by the Trump administration as we’re all just left to endure what our angry planet is cooking up for us.

El Niño, of course, is the colloquial name given to the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the recurring climate pattern in which the surface temperature and air pressure of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean fluctuates in patterns of increasing and decreasing intensity. We recently exited a cycle of La Niña, in which surface temperatures are below-average, entering the so-called neutral phase. Climate scientists, however, have been tracking the slow movement of huge masses of warmer water, driven east toward the U.S. coasts by winds. As these rise throughout the spring and summer, they will most likely trigger the onset of El Niño. In the United States, this typically implies cooler and wetter conditions in the southern U.S. during the winter, with a higher likelihood of strong storms, coupled with hotter and drier conditions in the northern U.S. The same pattern can disrupt the Atlantic hurricane season, potentially resulting in fewer storms there, but a higher likelihood of powerful Pacific storms.

But the intensity of this particular El Niño may be off the charts according to some of the most prominent modeling systems. Where a typical El Niño implies ocean surface temperatures in the designated portions of the tropical Pacific have risen 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, a “super El Niño” implies temperatures of 1.5-2 degrees Celsius or more above that average. And this is exactly what the typically most accurate European modeling suite is claiming we have in store for us in 2026–an El Niño that could challenge for the title of the strongest ever recorded.

‘The chances for a planet-warming super El Niño this year are rising, according to an updated model forecast issued Sunday… “Real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years,” wrote Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science’

www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026…

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— Serene Doomer (@serenaribena.bsky.social) Apr 8, 2026 at 6:45 AM

That would be a disastrous outcome for too many reasons for me to even get into, but most obviously from the perspective of temperature alone. An El Niño cycle comes to an end by releasing all of that excess, atypical heat stored in the oceans into the atmosphere, which in turn raises global average surface temperatures of the Earth. The stronger the El Niño, the more likely it has outsized effects on global temperatures–and for a “super El Niño,” we could be talking about temperature boosts that last not just for this year, but multiple years afterward. Currently, 2024 is on record as the hottest year ever recorded on Earth, but with the aid of El Niño warming, 2026-2027 and beyond would likely obliterate it that mark, resulting in the hottest years ever recorded since we’ve had the instruments to do so in the 19th century. And considering that we can barely even still grow our typical staple crops in the U.S. at this point, that additional warming could devastate everything from U.S. farming to wildlife management.

This is all just throwing more bundles of fuel onto what had already become a conflagration–the world is warming even more quickly than anticipated, for reasons that aren’t fully understood. In the U.S., these factors came to a head in a recently ended month of March that was truly, astoundingly, historically hot in almost all of the country–you really can’t understate how thoroughly most of the centuries-old records here were destroyed. The average temperature of March was 9.35 degrees above the 20th century normal for March, which destroyed the previous record of 8.9 degrees above normal set in March of 2012. It’s the most abnormally hot single month above average we have ever recorded. In fact, the average March temperature this year was even warmer than the historical average temperature for April has been in the past. What is it going to feel like if we have a July or August that is similarly far above historical norms in temperature?

“What we experienced in March across the United States was unprecedented,” said Climate Central meteorologist Shel Winkley. “One reason that’s so concerning is just the sheer volume of records, all-time records that were set and broken during that time period. But also this is coming on the heels of what was the worst snow year. And the hottest winter on record.”

Yeah, none of that sounds great, nor does the clustering of records for “abnormally hot months” that has been picking up steam in recent years. Of the top 10 most abnormally hot months ever recorded, six of them were recorded in the last decade. And oh, before March, February also earned a spot on that top 10 list, as it was 6.57 degrees hotter than the 20th century norm. And this is before the effects of an impending “super El Niño,” may I remind you.

Ironically, there will be some areas that actually welcome the effects of a particularly strong El Niño, if only because they’re already so afflicted by climate-driven effects that they’re hoping for a whipsaw reprieve. Colorado, for instance, continues to suffer from historic droughts and record-low snowpack, which means shortages of fresh water–as a result, you’ll see them hoping out loud that a super El Niño might help dump rainfall and snowfall on the state to replenish their reserves. Suffice to say, this is understandable, but all the same it’s a bit like praying for a flood to arrive because your house is currently on fire. Whatever short-term benefit a place might see from the immediate effects of a “super El Niño” will likely be outweighed by the record warming of the entire planet that will almost certainly trail in its wake.

Listen, I know it’s been super dry in the western U.S., but “rooting” for a strong El Nino to alleviate the dryness is not what you want to be doing. A strong El Nino will likely send global temperatures soaring to new records and will create suffering for countless people.

— Climatologist49 (@climatologist49.bsky.social) Apr 8, 2026 at 4:40 PM

But don’t worry guys, we have the Environmental Protection Agency, whose director recently signed away the agency’s legal right to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, while increasing toxic emissions and decreasing the regulation of mercury, among other things. Oh, and his most likely reward is that he’ll probably become the next U.S. Attorney General. But on the plus side, maybe we’ll all have burned to a crisp by then?