The U.S. Senate Battlegrounds in 2026: 12 Races to Watch in the Midterms (Updated)

For Republicans, it wasn’t supposed to be like this. In the last election cycle the party had made historic inroads with both Hispanics and young men, fending off the long-predicted demographic shift advantage that Democrats have been dreaming about for decades. Donald Trump promised lower prices, no new wars and closed borders—only delivering on the on that last one, and doing so in such a cruel way that even his “best” issue has an approval rating of only 38% with those most important issues like inflation (21% approval) and cost of living (22% approval) erasing all the gains the president had made. In fact, he’s even lost his core demographic—less than half of white men without a college degree approve of his job performance. So instead of just playing offense in places like Georgia and Michigan, the GOP is now looking at having to defend states as red as Texas, Iowa, and Nebraska.

Today we take a look at the 12 states that have a reasonable chance of swinging either way in November. We’ve ranked them from most to least likely to turn or remain blue. This article was updated on June 19.

1. North Carolina

Of the eight seats Democrats are hoping to flip, North Carolina looks the most promising, but liberals in the state have gotten their hopes up before. Republican incumbent Thom Tillis, who’s repeatedly clashed with Trump, decided not to run, sparing himself the fates of other non-MAGA incumbents like John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, who both lost primaries. That leaves former GOP party chair Michael Whatley facing the state’s popular sitting Governor Roy Cooper in November. Cooper has the early lead in polling. [Our prediction: Roy Cooper (D) +5]

2. New Hampshire

One of 13 open seats being contested this fall thanks to the retirement of Jeanne Shaheen, Republicans look to gain another foothold in the Northeast by running a well-known candidate. The primaries won’t be held until Sept. 8, but neither race looks to be in doubt. The November match up should feature Democratic Representative Chris Pappas facing former Senator John Sununu, who lost his last race to Shaheen in 2008. Pappas leads Sununu in the polls, but the margins remain in the single digits. [Our prediction: Chris Pappas (D) +4]

3. Georgia

Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent David Perdue by a single percentage point in the 2020 runoff (actually held in January of 2021). Six years later, he remains the youngest U.S. Senator and a rising star within the Democratic Party. Republicans in the state recently chose Donald Trump’s pick (U.S. Rep. Mike Collins) over Governor Brian Kemp’s (former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley) to unseat him. Polls show Ossoff with a slight lead over either candidate. [Our prediction: Jon Ossoff (D) +3]

4. Michigan

The Wolverine State swung to Trump by 1.4 points in 2024, and Republicans are hoping to flip a Senate seat left open by retiring Gary Peters with former congressman Mike Rogers looking to cruise to victory in the GOP primary. The Democrats are still in the midst of a fairly brutal three-way race between epidemiologist Abdul El-Sayed (running in the progressive lane), congresswoman Haley Stevens (running a more moderate campaign) and state senator Mallory McMorrow (splitting the difference). All three have appeared at the top of various polls, and the general election looks to be a similar toss-up. [Our prediction: Abdul El-Sayed (D) +1]

5. Maine

Yet again, Republican Susan Collins is looking to overcome the headwinds and secure another term in the Senate in an otherwise blue state. She won her last election in 2020 by a whopping 8.6 points, even as the state went for Biden. She’ll be facing Graham Platner, a former Marine vet and oyster farmer who upended traditional Democratic politics in the state by defeating Maine’s 78-year-old sitting Governor Janet Mills, who Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer had recruited for the seat. Collins has the advantage of incumbency and $10 million in campaign cash on hand, and will only be emboldened by Platner’s series of scandals, but Platner is still off to a lead in the polls. [Our prediction: Graham Platner (D) +1]

6. Alaska

Trump carried Alaska by 13 points in 2024, but Democrat Mary Peltola lost her at-large congressional seat by less than 3. Now she’s running for the Senate against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and a handful of others in the state’s Aug. 18 jungle primary. Polling in the state is sparse, but Peltola, the first Alaska Native member of Congress, is leading in the few that have been published. If Peltola wins, Alaska would have two of the nation’s most moderate senators (along with Lisa Murkowski) sitting on either side of the aisle. [Our prediction: Mary Peltola (D) +1]

7. Texas

Here we are, once again getting our hopes up about Texas being a purple state. Beto O’Rourke came closest to flipping a Senate seat back in 2018 in his race against Ted Cruz with a gap of 2.5 points. But James Talarico will be looking to do more than just come close in November, facing a flawed candidate in state attorney general Ken Paxton, thanks to Donald Trump putting personal grudges ahead of his party’s best interests. As Thom Tillis so colorfully put it, “To call Paxton ethically challenged is to call Jeffrey Dahmer suffering from an eating disorder.” Talarico is a 37-year-old state representative, as well as a former middle-school teacher and seminarian, who came out of nowhere to beat Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the primary. He’ll need to unite Democrats and actually get them out to the polls to finally make a longtime liberal dream into reality. [Our prediction: James Talarico (D) +.05]

8. Ohio

It’s been a long time since Ohio was seen as a competitive state, but Democrats are rallying behind former Senator Sherrod Brown in this special election to fill the seat JD Vance vacated to become Vice President. The populist labor advocate will face former Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat last year. Most polls show Husted in the lead, but the most recent Fox poll has Brown up by 8. This one truly looks like a toss-up. [Our prediction: Jon Husted (R) +.05]

9. Iowa

Was it her “Well, we all are going to die” comment at a town hall in response to a constituent suggesting that Republican cuts to Medicare would cause people to die that made Senator Joni Ernst decide not to seek reelection? Regardless, the seat is now open in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic U.S. Senator since 2008. U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson looks to be a pretty strong candidate on the GOP facing state representative Josh Turek. Recent polls show the race closer than might be expected. [Our prediction: Ashley Hinson (R) +1]

10. Nebraska

Democrats have no shot of winning this race, as their nominee, Cindy Burbank, only entered the primary in order to clear the way for independent candidate Dan Osborn. Osborne will be the only challenger on the ballot to Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts. The former union leader and Navy vet ran in the 2024 Senate race, losing to Deb Fisher by just 7 points, and early polls show this year’s race to be another competitive one. Osborn has said he wouldn’t caucus with either party, but Democrats would much prefer an independent candidate who wants to raise the national minimum wage and legalize cannabis, in this ruby-red state than returning Ricketts to the Senate. [Our prediction: Pete Ricketts (R) +3]

11. Florida

Another special election takes place in Florida thanks to Marco Rubio resigning last year to become Secretary of State, National Security Advisor and Ruthless Punisher of the People of Cuba. Governor Ron DeSantis appointed state attorney general Ashley Moody to the seat, and she’s the favorite to face the winner of the Aug 18’s Democratic primary—likely either Trump whistleblower Alex Vindman or state representative Angie Nixon. It’ll be an uphill battle for either, as Florida has only become redder in recent years, though the state’s Hispanic population will play a big role in November if they swing back toward more purple historical norms. [Our prediction: Ashley Moody (R) +5]

12. Montana

Like in Nebraska, the candidate with the best chance of keeping this seat out of the hands of Republicans is an independent. Former University of Montana president Seth Bodner is running as an independent, but he’ll likely have votes pulled away by Alani Bankhead, a first-time political candidate who won the Democratic nomination. That leaves lone Republican nominee Kurt Alme as the favorite. Alme filed for the primary at the last minute, just as Senator Steve Daines announced he was withdrawing from the race in a widely criticized move to hand-select his successor without a competitive election. Montana politics, y’all. [Our prediction: Kurt Alme (R) +7]