Ranking the Closest Senate Races by How Batshit the GOP Candidate Is

Republican candidates have called women “crazy” for caring about abortion rights and threatened gun violence in order to protect Trump. The GOP could still manage to take control of the Senate.

By Kylie Cheung  |  October 15, 2024 | 5:19pm
Photos: Getty Images Politics 2024 Election
Ranking the Closest Senate Races by How Batshit the GOP Candidate Is

We’re somehow exactly three weeks out from Election Day, and I’m doing fine, everything is fine! But if I had one, single, teensy complaint, it would be the batshit state of the U.S. Senate races. It’s not just the presidential election that’ll probably be decided by a handful of key swing states—nearly every major Senate race, in states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, and Texas, is either a toss-up or too close for comfort, despite how nearly every GOP candidate has been embroiled in some comically absurd scandal or another.

One candidate recently called women “crazy” for caring about abortion rights. Another’s compared himself to a falsely accused rapist…all because his opponent lightly critiqued him. And another doesn’t even appear to live in the state where he’s running. Yet, the GOP could still manage to take control of the Senate in November, and then use that control to pass further abortion restrictions or confirm additional anti-abortion extremists to federal judgeships and the Supreme Court.

None of these races should be this close. But for whatever reason, they are. So, please join me in evaluating and rating the batshittery of each—on a scale of pretty batshit (🦇) to so thoroughly batty it broke my brain (🦇🦇🦇🦇🦇). Happy early Halloween, I guess!

Florida: Republican Rick Scott vs. Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Polls: FiveThirtyEight puts Scott just two points ahead of Mucarsel-Powell, but the Cook Political Report still classifies their race as “Likely Republican.”

This is Scott’s first bid for reelection, and it comes just months after Florida’s Supreme Court allowed a six-week abortion ban to take effect, of which Scott has offered a variety of contradictory opinions. At some points, he’s supported the ban, and at others, he’s advocated for an ostensibly softer 15-week ban. Meanwhile, his opponent, former Rep. Mucarsel-Powell (D), has been campaigning heavily on the issue, recently calling Florida’s ban “Rick Scott’s abortion ban” and warning that “if Scott is elected, he will not hesitate to pass a national abortion ban.”

But what boggles my mind about this race isn’t just Scott’s inability to articulate a consistent position or if he’d vote for a national ban—it’s his increasingly bonkers comments about what abortion even is.

“[Democrats] want to have abortion up until the moment before a baby, a nine-month term, by crushing a baby’s skull. They’ve all voted to allow a healthy baby born alive to just cry itself to death in the corner by starving itself to death,” Scott told donors on a Zoom call in September. Before that, at a religious event in August, he said Democrats “support allowing a baby born, healthy, born alive, to just cry itself to death.” Fact-check: False! 

Scott has also pushed the lie that Amendment 4—which would establish a right to abortion in the state and is currently polling between 46 and 69% —is just a sly Democratic scheme to mobilize women voters, rather than an effort to repeal an extreme abortion ban at a time when we’re watching these laws dehumanize and even kill pregnant people. I’m very much questioning how he got elected in the first place, so the closeness of his race for reelection is making me feel a little nuts.

Rating: I give this race 🦇🦇🦇🦇 and 😭👼, which symbolizes the imagined baby that cried itself to death and continues to haunt Scott’s dreams.

Montana: Republican Tim Sheehy vs. Democrat Jon Tester

Polls: FiveThirtyEight puts Sheehy eight points ahead of Tester and Cook classifies their race as “Lean Republican.”

Sheehy, the founder of a drone company who’s running to oust three-term Democratic incumbent Sen. Tester, is a perfect encapsulation of the average, Trump-era Republican: comically weird in a way that makes you want to both laugh and run and hide in a nuclear bunker. He’s been caught lying about the circumstances under which he was shot in the arm, has sweepingly called Native American people drunks, and equated Tester’s criticisms of his political inexperience with being falsely accused of rape.

Since Sheehy won the nomination in June, Tester’s campaign has run ads about Sheehy’s credibility and, at a campaign event in July, said Sheehy is “all lies.” So Sheehy inexplicably responded by telling supporters, “People ask me, how do you fight back? Number one, I can’t, because it’s like, if you’re not a rapist, how do you prove you’re not a rapist? I can’t prove it, it’s impossible.” I… uh, OK. 

Sheehy has justified his unflinching support for abortion bans by warning that any random embryo could be the next Albert Einstein (???)—which, to that I say, couldn’t a pregnant woman who wants an abortion in order to focus on her science career be the next Einstein, too??? And, in newly resurfaced audio from 2023, Sheehy railed against the supposed naivete of young women for supporting abortion rights: “That’s all they want to talk about. They are single-issue voters.”

At a Senate debate earlier this month, Tester put Sheehy’s abortion position on full blast: “The bottom line is this: Whose decision is it to be made? Is it the federal government’s decision, the state government’s decision, Tim Sheehy’s decision, Jon Tester’s decision? No, it’s the woman’s decision. Tim Sheehy’s called abortion ‘terrible’ and ‘murder.’ That doesn’t sound to me like he’s supporting the woman to make that decision.”

It’s been two years since Montana defeated a deceptive anti-abortion measure back in 2022, and, like Florida, the state will also be voting on an abortion rights ballot measure in November. There are no publicly available polls for Montana’s abortion measure, but NBC News points out there’s “little evidence” the measure has had “a major effect” on Sheehy and Tester’s race. So, we’ll see what happens, but it would be incredibly odd to simultaneously elect Sheehy and vote for abortion rights—two clearly incompatible positions.

Rating: I give this race 🦇🦇🦇🦇 and 🙄, because that is a visual of me reading every Sheehy quote that has been put in front of me against my will.

Arizona: Republican Kari Lake vs. Democrat Ruben Gallego

Polls: FiveThirtyEight puts Gallego seven points ahead of Lake, and Cook classifies their race as “Lean Democrat.”

In 2022, Kari Lake narrowly lost the race for governor of Arizona, and like a cockroach navigating a post-apocalyptic nuclear wasteland, she stuck around. That’s one thing I’ll give her—between quasi-shacking up with Trump in Mar-a-Lago in 2023 while (unsuccessfully) auditioning to be his veep, to never conceding to current Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D), and now, running a comically incoherent campaign for U.S. Senate in Arizona, she hasn’t missed a beat. 

In the last year, Lake has threatened mass gun violence to protect Trump, and she’s still denying the outcome of the 2020 election. (Cue: “Girl, move on” meme.) More recently, in April, she couldn’t get her shit straight on Arizona’s since-repealed, pre-Civil War, total abortion ban: She originally supported it, then vehemently opposed it, then dismissed concerns about the ban because Arizonans could still drive “three hours” to get an abortion in another state. Arizona currently imposes a 15-week abortion ban, but during the October 9 debate with her opponent, Rep. Gallego (D), Lake lied that a 15-week ban isn’t a ban. It’s just “a law,” she said, then refused to elaborate further.

Like Florida and Montana, Arizona will vote on a ballot measure to enshrine a right to abortion in the state. Post-Dobbs abortion ballot measures have historically mobilized voters so here’s hoping that’ll go in Gallego’s favor and he’ll send Lake packing back to Mar-a-Lago.

Rating: I give this race 🦇🦇🦇🦇🦇 and 👫, which symbolizes Trump and Lake as roommates.

Ohio: Republican Bernie Moreno vs. Democrat Sherrod Brown

Polls: FiveThirtyEight puts Brown one point ahead of Moreno, and Cook classifies their race as “Toss-Up.”

Most men spiral when one woman rejects them, so, has anyone checked on Bernie Moreno since over 1,200 Ohio women of all political affiliations wrote an open letter calling him “unfit” to represent them??? In the letter, the women point to Moreno’s insulting comments from September in which he characterized women as “a bit crazy” for caring about abortion rights. 

Like Sheehy, Moreno also wrote women off as hysterical, “single-issue” voters. And while those comments have drawn the most attention, I regret to inform you that they’re the tip of the iceberg. In February, Moreno suggested that abortion rights are unnecessary because women simply need help carrying heavy strollers around. (Alas, unless the big, strong man offering to help carry my stroller is also an abortion provider, that’s not going to be helpful for my unwanted pregnancy, Bernie!) And in September, building on Republicans’ increasing penchant for election denialism, Moreno lied that the abortion rights ballot measure that won in Ohio last year was only victorious because people cheated.

I want every single one of these Republican Senate candidates to lose because they pose existential threats to my most fundamental human rights, but I want Moreno to lose, in particular, because he seems like a real asshole.

Rating: I give this race 🦇🦇🦇 and a 🤪, the emoji that came up when I typed “crazy” in the emoji keyboard.

Texas: Republican Ted Cruz vs. Colin Allred

Polls: FiveThirtyEight puts Cruz five points ahead of Allred, and Cook classifies their race as “Lean Republican.”

What’s left to say about Ted Cruz that hasn’t already been said a thousand times over during his decade-long reign of terror in the U.S. Senate??? This is a man who fled his state during a natural disaster and then blamed this hideously selfish decision on his child daughters. This is a man who boasted about his relationships with an anti-abortion extremist group linked to the assassination of an abortion provider in 2009. And on top of all of that, he still found time to “like” porn on the anniversary of September 11 in 2017—at least that time he had the couth to blame it on an intern instead of his daughters. 

In any case, despite ranking among the most universally loathed of all Senate Republicans and weathering one public humiliation after another, especially in 2016, Cruz has clung on. So, pardon me for getting a little excited that polls have looked pretty promising lately for his Democratic opponent, Texas Rep. Colin Allred. Of course, I’ll still be shocked to see Cruz unseated, since, as the adage goes, a bad weed never dies.

But if Cruz does fall, it will have to be at least in part due to abortion. Most recently, Cruz has said…literally nothing about abortion, the Texas Tribune reports. Across the board, Republican candidates have avoided touching the issue as much as possible given the deep electoral unpopularity of their laws. But it’s especially striking from Cruz, who’s centered his political career around banning abortion.

While Texas’ abortion ban has been torturing and likely killing Cruz’s constituents for over three years now, the incumbent senator can’t even bring himself to answer basic questions about his position on the issue to Texas newspapers—specifically, whether he supports a national abortion ban. Meanwhile, Allred has made his position in support of abortion rights abundantly clear, and incidentally, the latest round of internal GOP polling shows Cruz is just one point ahead of Allred.

Rating: I give this race 🦇🦇🦇🦇🦇🦇🦇🦇🦇🦇 (10 out of 5 bats), because how is this man still in the Senate at all????

Wisconsin: Republican Eric Hovde vs. Democrat Tammy Baldwin

Polls: FiveThirtyEight puts Baldwin four points ahead of Hovde, and Cook classifies their race as “Toss-Up.”

Incumbent Sen. Baldwin handily won reelection by 11 points in 2018, but as of the week of October 7, her race went from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss-Up” which… is not great! Hovde, a businessman who largely put down roots in California, has previously, dangerously equated Plan B with abortion.

And when Hovde unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2012, he said he was “totally opposed to abortion,” and “oppose[s] legalized abortion”—“from conception,” which is an endorsement of fetal personhood. Hovde is currently endorsed by Right to Life Wisconsin, whose stated mission is to make abortion “legally unacceptable,” citing Hovde’s “strong support for federal right-to-life issues.” FWIW, “strong support for federal right-to-life issues” translates to “strong support for federal abortion ban.” So, I’d love nothing more for this man to get shipped off back to California and not D.C.

Rating: I give this race 🦇🦇🦇 and 💊💉, because I hope Hovde eventually figures out the difference between Plan B, abortion, and “hard narcotics.”

Michigan: Republican Mike Rogers vs. Democrat Elissa Slotkin

Polls: FiveThirtyEight puts Slotkin five points ahead of Rogers, but Cook classifies their race as “Toss-Up.”

Republicans have spent this election cycle posturing as moderates on abortion, and former Rep. Rogers is no exception, as he runs against Rep. Slotkin (D) for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat. In June, Rogers said on a local radio station that abortion is a “settled matter” in Michigan, which voted to codify a right to abortion in the state Constitution in 2022. In May, he said he was “not going back to Washington, D.C. to undo what the people of Michigan decided to do.”

But I’d rather listen to Rogers’ record than his lies: In 2000, Rogers completed a candidate questionnaire for the Michigan Catholic Conference in which he backed an initiative known as the “Human Life Amendment,” which would ban abortion from the moment of conception and enshrine fetal personhood in the Constitution. Earlier this year, Rogers said he’d vote against a national abortion ban and wouldn’t threaten Michigan’s constitutional abortion right. But in 2013, Rogers voted for a 20-week national abortion ban, which is still very much a national ban, whether he calls it one or not.

If you take one thing away from this dumpster fire of an election season, please let it be to evaluate candidates’ records and actions—not their word salads.

Rating: I give this race 🦇🦇🦇 and a 🧾, because no matter how Rogers tries to spin his abortion position, the receipts exist in abundance.

Nevada: Republican Sam Brown vs. Democrat Jacky Rosen

Polls: FiveThirtyEight puts Rosen nine points ahead of Brown, and Cook classifies their race as “Lean Democrat.”

In June, Brown, a military veteran who’s previously, unsuccessfully run for office in Texas, wrote an op-ed for the Las Vegas Sun spewing a truly commendable level of bullshit. Brown claimed that the Dobbs decision, which has resulted in about half of states enacting total or near-total abortion bans, actually “strengthened Nevada’s protections for abortion by confirming this choice is decided by states, not the federal government.” Nevada doesn’t currently have an abortion ban, but, like all states where abortion remains legal, it’s become less accessible as a result of the influx of out-of-state patients traveling from abortion-banned states. Because abortion bans anywhere strain and disrupts abortion access for everyone everywhere. 

Brown continued, “I believe very strongly in letting ‘the people’ decide. Jacky Rosen supports allowing the federal government to impose new rules on abortion, rules that have the potential to go further than Nevadans may desire.” This—the idea that allowing states to vote on abortion rights is some sort of humane, just compromise—actually makes me want to run through a brick wall like the Kool-Aid man. To be clear, Republican officials are doing everything they can to stop these ballot measures, which still functionally treat pregnant people’s bodies as publicly owned property. Nevada, please keep Sam Brown as far away from both the U.S. Senate and American women as possible.

Rating: I give this race 🦇🦇 and a 💩 for Brown’s bullshit. Dobbs didn’t strengthen abortion rights for anyone, kindly, please eat shit, Sir.

Minnesota: Republican Royce White vs. Democrat Amy Klobuchar

Polls: FiveThirtyEight puts Klobuchar eight points ahead of White, and Cook classifies their race as “Solid Democrat.”

Hmm… how do I begin to summarize Royce White for Jezebel readers who might have missed our previous coverage? I’ll start here: Earlier this month, one of White’s tweets from 2022 resurfaced, in which he bemoaned that “the bad guys” won World War II, and it did not surprise me in the slightest. The former, failed NBA player and close, personal friend to white nationalist Steve Bannon has called himself an anti-abortion “absolutist” all while allegedly paying for several women’s abortions. He’s accused Jewish people of being interested in “world control,” and has very publicly called at least four people “cunts.” He’s also said “women have become too mouthy,” and called Klobuchar “the head” of “the swamp” that is D.C., adding that she’s responsible for “all this climate change and the LGBTQ” nonsense.

Thankfully, his bid to unseat Klobuchar does not appear particularly competitive, but it’s certainly not encouraging that he won the GOP primary to challenge her.

Rating: I give this race 🦇🦇🦇🦇🦇, because… well, just reread his quotes if you’re still confused!

Pennsylvania: Republican David McCormick vs. Democrat Bob Casey

Polls: FiveThirtyEight puts Casey four points ahead of McCormick, but Cook classifies their race as “Lean Democrat.”

As Jezebel’s Susan Rinkunas wrote in September, in Pennsylvania, former hedge fund CEO and Connecticut resident David McCormick is running to unseat incumbent Democrat Bob Casey, who’s winning by an average of 3.5 points and as many as nine points. That it’s a decently close race is insane when you remember McCormick appears to reside in another state, where his old hedge fund frequently worked against Pennsylvania’s biggest companies. That’s the primary scandal of this race, but it isn’t the only one McCormick brings to the table: He also allegedly threatened or retaliated against three former Bridgewater Associates employees who reported sexual harassment at the fund.

According to a 2023 book about rampant sexual misconduct at the company, McCormick tried to intimidate one woman into silence about her allegations of sexual harassment, warning her “that if she ever broke the agreement, she would be in litigation for the rest of her life.” And in a similar vein, his campaign has paid more than $600,000 to a Republican consulting firm that’s been sued for sexual harassment and retaliation.

McCormick’s policies are just as hostile to women. At a debate with Casey last week, confronted over his record of opposing abortion rights, McCormick said abortion is “something that we need to get past.” No, thank you!

Look, I’m not saying I want McCormick to be Connecticut’s problem—but he certainly shouldn’t be Pennsylvania’s, much less the entire country’s if he wins a seat in the U.S. Senate.

Rating: I give this race 🦇🦇🦇🦇, because even if McCormick hasn’t explicitly called women “crazy,” it is pretty crazy that he doesn’t even live in the state where he’s running.

Famously, the electoral college sucks—but the U.S. Senate sucks for pretty much the exact same reason: It’s entirely disproportionate and is the reason the Supreme Court is stacked with fascist, anti-abortion extremists that none of us supported. (Sorry, but there’s really no reason why a state with a population of 580,000 people should have the same amount of say in whether an anti-abortion sexual predator gets appointed to the Supreme Court as a state with 39 million people.) Still, for whatever reason, both of these things—the electoral college and the Senate—still exist in the year of our Lord 2024. So, this Halloween season, consider casting a spell or putting a hex on Cruz or any of these other ghouls, in the hopes that this country will end up sending the least insane representatives to this utterly archaic institution.

 
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