The 16 Governor Races to Watch This Year

With Congress so closely divided and currently offering very little check on Trump’s dumpster fire of an administration, races for the House and Senate have gotten most of the attention in 2026. But the governors mansion is also up for grabs in 36 states this year. Many of these races won’t be particularly close, but you never know when the electorate might surprise you. In recent years, ruby red states like Kentucky, Louisiana and Kansas have elected a Democrat, while Republicans have prevailed in liberal strongholds like Vermont, New Hampshire and Massachusetts.

Currently Republicans hold a 26-24 advantage over Democrats leading their respective states, and each party will be defending 18 of them. Whether we see any more gubernatorial upsets this year remains to be seen, but like we did for the Senate races to watch, we’ve picked 18 Governor races that could be competitive this year, ranked by how likely we think they are to turn or remain blue.

Colorado

Coloradans like our own Jacob Weindling will not miss their current half-a-billionaire Gov. Jared Polis with either U.S. Senator Michael Bennett or the state attorney general Phil Weiser his likely successor. The two Democrats are in a tight battle for the nomination in the June 30 primary. The Republican primary is straight-up crazy town, as John Oliver recently highlighted on Last Week Tonight. The front-runner is a state secessionist, battling against, well… you just kind of have to see for yourself.

[Our prediction: Michael Bennett (D) or Phil Weiser (D) +10]

Pennsylvania

Democratic governor Josh Shapiro is running for reelection in a state that went to Trump in 2024, but with a 60% approval rating and a huge fundraising advantage, he’s probably not very worried. He’ll be facing the state’s treasurer, Stacy Garrity, who ran unopposed in her primary. [Our prediction: Josh Shapiro (D) +9]

Minnesota

After his defeat on the presidential ticket and the daycare fraud scandals in his state, Tim Walz opted not to run for a third term in Minnesota. Primary elections are on Aug. 11 with Sen. Amy Klobuchar the frontrunner, outraising all the many other Democratic and Republican hopefuls combined. On the GOP side, that includes the state’s Speaker of the House Lisa Demuth and MAGA pillow-pusher Mike Lindell. [Our prediction: Amy Klobuchar (D) +6]

Arizona

Democrat Katie Hobbs is running for reelection in Arizona’s newly formatted race where each candidate will have to nominate a running mate for lieutenant governor. That’s because Arizona didn’t have lieutenant governors before now—the secretary of state was next in line for the position, but only if they had been elected to office, not appointed. It’s a good reminder that we’re all just making this governance shit up as we go. The July 21 primary will determine who Hobbs faces in November, though it’s looking like it’ll be U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, the Freedom Caucus chairman and famed election denier who claimed Antifa was behind the Jan. 6 storming of the Capital. [Our prediction: Katie Hobbs (D) +6]

Michigan

Democratic secretary of state Jocelyn Benson is leading her primary opponents in the race to take over from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is term-limited. Things are a little more crowded on the Republican side, with U.S. Rep. John James, attorney general Mike Cox, businessman Perry Johnson and state senate minority leader Aric Nesbitt battling it out before the Aug. 4 primary. A proponent of women’s reproductive rights, Benson announced her candidacy on the anniversary of the Roe v. Wade decision. [Our prediction: Jocelyn Benson (D) +5]

Maine

With Janet Mills retiring and subsequently dropping out of the Senate race, five Democrats and eight Republicans faced off last night for their respective party’s nominations. Because Maine is a ranked-choice voting state (yay!), results will take a while to settle (boo!). But you can’t have everything. Navy vet Bobby Charles has a big lead for Republicans, but the Democratic field remains tight with four candidates—former CDC deputy director Nirav Shah, former speaker of the Maine house Hannah Pingree, former president of the Maine senate Troy Jackson, and Maine’s secretary of state Shenna Bellows all getting at least 20% on the first ballot. [Our prediction: [Insert Maine Democrat here] (D) +5]  

Wisconsin

With Democratic Gov. Tony Evers declining to seek a third term, this race is wide open with seven Democratic candidates having raised at least $100,000. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes holds a slight polling lead over the state’s current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez and the rest of the crowded field, but they all trail behind “Undecided.” Wisconsin voters will have until Aug. 11 to rally behind a candidate. On the Republican side, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, a freedom caucus member, has a comfortable lead. [Our prediciton: Undecided candidate (D) +2]

Georgia

If, like me, you live in the state of Georgia, you’d only think that Republicans are running in the gubernatorial race. In fact, you’d think that was the only election on the ballot. Businessman Rick Jackson has purchased seemingly every ad slot in the state, spending a whopping $65 million of mostly his own money so far—just on the primary and run-off against Lt. Gov. Burt Jones—in an effort to succeed Republican Brian Kemp. Jones has spent $18 million slinging the mud back at Jackson. Meanwhile the Democratic nominee former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms spent less on her primary than the 4th place Republican, but still coasted to victory with 56% of the vote over six opponents. She’ll need to hope that money doesn’t buy Georgian’s votes. She would become the nation’s first Black woman governor and do so in a state that’s never had anyone but a white man in office. [Our prediction: Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) +1]

Iowa

Iowa has open seats for Governor and U.S. Senate as neither Republican incumbent chose to run. Democrats are looking to spend a lot of money to try to turn the state the slightest shade of purple, banking on the fact that Trump’s policies have hit farmers as hard as—well, there are a lot of people his policies have hit harder, but still. Voters have already landed one blow to Trump by passing over his hand-selected candidate Randy Feenstra by nominating a farmer and businessman Zach Lahn. Rob Sand, the state auditor and only Democrat to win a statewide office since 2018, ran uncontested in his primary. Limited polling actually shows Sand with a lead. Dare Iowan Democrats begin to hope? [Our prediction: Rob Sand (D) +.5 – It’s the hope that kills you.]

Nevada

Nevada is truly purple with many of its statewide offices split between the two major parties. But the GOP has won every Governor’s race but one since 1998. Incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo is running for reelection and cruised to his primary victory last night. State attorney general Aaron Ford won the nomination from the Democrats. But slightly more Nevadans turned out for the Republican contests, and Lombardo looks like the favorite in a state that went for Trump two years ago. [Our prediction: Joe Lombardo (R) +2]

Alaska

Alaska’s primary is similar to California’s as a nonpartisan blanket primary, except they get everything right that California gets wrong. The top four candidates proceed to the November general, which uses ranked-choice voting (which all states should adopt). Incumbent Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, and there are a lot of candidates to replace him, mostly on the Republican side. It’s a notoriously difficult state to poll, but Democrats are putting most of their hopes behind poet, musician and state senator Tom Begich. The leading Republican candidates include the founder of a waste management company and a member of the state medical board. [Our prediction: Rando (R) +2]

New Hampshire

New Hampshire’s Republican Governor Kelly Ayote is running for reelection in a state that’s voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2004. As an incumbent, the former U.S. Senator will be favored to repeat her 2024 win (yes, those weirdos in New Hampshire and Vermont elect their governors for two-year terms). She’ll face Democrat Cinde Warmington, a New Hampshire Executive Councilor (what even is this state’s form of government?!) and independent Newmarket Councilor Jon Kiper. [Our prediction: Kelly Ayote (R) +3]

Ohio

Remember Vivek Ramaswamy, the presidential candidate that used most of his time on the debate stage to praise his primary opponent Donald Trump? He’s now the GOP’s nominee to succeed Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. He’ll face Democrat Amy Acton, the former director of the Ohio Department of Health. Whoever wins will end a long line of white dudes elected to this role. Acton will hope that fans of Ohio Senate candidate Sherrod Brown don’t split their tickets. Either way, it’s an uphill battle for any Democrat in this red-leaning state. [Our prediction: Vivek Ramaswamy (R) +3]

Kansas

For the last eight years, Kansas has had a Democratic governor. In a state that Trump won by double-digits, Laura Kelly has led the state out of the quagmire that former Gov. Sam Brownback had concocted with his disasterous “Kansas experiment,” cutting funding to schools, roads and services. Democrats are hoping Kansans still remember, but with their most prominent candidates being a pair of state senators, Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson, that’s a lot to hope for. Candidates on the Republican side include the current secretary of state and insurance commissioner, along with Trump’s pick, Kansas State president Ty Masterson. [Our prediction: Ty Masterson (R) +5] 

Florida

As the Ron DeSantis Era thankfully comes to an end with his second term, Republican U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds looks to be the man most likely to succeed him, with the former Tea Party member securing Trump’s endorsement. He’ll have to first defeat 13 other GOP candidates in the Aug. 18 primary, most notably an investment management firm founder James Fishback. The Democratic nominee will likely be former Republican U.S. Rep. David Jolly, a longtime Trump critic who switched his party registration last year. Adding to the chaos is an independent candidate who used to be the minority leader of the Florida senate before leaving the Democratic party. Florida, man. [Our prediction: Byron Donalds (R) +6]

Texas

While some Texas Democrats are starting to believe that James Talarico can win his Senate battle against a flawed candidate in Ken Paxton, trying to unseat an incumbent governor in Greg Abbott looks like a tougher ask. But Gina Hinojosa will be giving it her best shot come November. The state representative garnered 59% of the vote in a nine-way race back in March, giving her eight months to focus on the general election. Where Talarico is ahead in the polls, Hinojosa has consistently been trailing Abbott by about five points. [Our prediction: Greg Abbott (R) +6]