Some Bad News for Florida’s Abortion Rights Ballot Measure

In November, Floridians will have the chance to vote on Amendment 4, a ballot measure that would enshrine a right to abortion in the state Constitution until the point of fetal viability—and, consequently, repeal the state’s six-week ban that’s been in effect since May. According to the latest poll, abortion rights organizers in the state may face an uphill battle: Per Florida Atlantic University, which surveyed voters last week, 56% of Floridians plan to vote for Amendment 4. But, in Florida, ballot measures require 60% of the vote to take effect, and Republican officials in the state famously trade in aggressive voter suppression.

This is a pretty sharp dip from a poll from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab at the end of July, which showed 69% of voters saying they’ll vote for Amendment 4. (Of course, polling from that same period showed Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by a 49-42 point margin, which means many Floridians—even if they vote for Amendment 4—would still be voting for an abortion ban, given what we know about Trump and Project 2025.) Back in June, a poll showed abortion is far more popular than Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who signed the six-week ban into law, by a 69 to 52% margin.

Even getting Amendment 4 on the ballot at all was something of an uphill battle, thanks to aggressive attacks and legal challenges from Republican officials. In April, the Florida Supreme Court simultaneously ruled that a six-week ban that had previously been blocked in court could take effect starting May 1, and that voters could vote on Amendment 4 in November. The ballot measure, which collected well over the number of signatures needed to get on the ballot, including over 150,000 from registered Republicans, has offered some cause for hope. But it doesn’t change the fact that, at least through November, abortion is banned across not just Florida but the entire region.

Before May, Florida was the last state in the region to offer abortion services. Florida provided 80,000 abortions in 2023, including an estimated 7,000 patients who traveled from another state. In June, the Florida Access Network abortion fund told reporters on a press call that the average distance callers now have to travel for an abortion is over 900 miles. The closest state where Floridians can get abortions—and only through 12 weeks—is North Carolina, which is more than one state over. Stephanie Loraine Pineiro, executive director of FAN, called Florida’s ban “the biggest change in the abortion access landscape” since the Dobbs decision.

Thus far, abortion rights or abortion rights-related measures have sweepingly triumphed in all states where they’ve been on the ballot since the Supreme Court killed Roe v. Wade—including Kansas, Ohio, Michigan, and others. While the latest poll out of Florida gives some cause for concern, or at least greater urgency, bridging a 4-point gap is hardly insurmountable—especially with well over two months out to Election Day, and large swaths of the country relying on the outcome of this ballot measure.