The U.S. House Battlegrounds in 2026: 55 Races to Watch in the Midterms

We’ve looked at this year’s Senate and Governor races, and now for the hard part: breaking down the races for the U.S. House. Despite the increase in gerrymandering around the country—kicked off by the president pressuring the Texas state legislature to take the drastic measure of mid-decade redistricting, leading to even fewer competitive districts—there are still nearly 50 races that could go either way, and public polling is scarce. We’ve also included districts that are almost sure to flip due to new maps.

The battle for control of the House will be fierce and the eyes of the nation will be on those handful of key battleground districts, which we’ve highlighted below. As always, these races are listed in order of most likely to turn or remain blue to most likely to turn or remain red. Whether or not you live in one of these districts, now would be a great time to register to vote.

Utah 1st

Incumbent: Open (R)
Candidates: Ben McAdams (D), Riley Owen (R)
2024 Election: D+24
Prediction: Ben McAdams (D) +20

State courts in Utah deemed the previous Republican-drawn map to be an illegal gerrymander, giving the Democrats a likely pickup in Utah’s 1st district, where former U.S. congressman Ben McAdams hopes to return to Washington.

California 1st

Incumbent: James Gallagher (R)
Candidates: Mike McGuire (D), James Gallagher (R)
2024 Election: D+12
Prediction: Mike McGuire (D) +13

This race shouldn’t be close, but it’s notable in that Democrats will likely oust incumbent Rep. James Gallagher thanks to the state’s redistricting in response to Republicans’ actions in Texas. Gallagher just won a special election caused by the death of the seat’s former occupant, Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R), but will face state Senator Mike McGuire in the newly drawn Northern California district.

California 6th 

Incumbent: Kevin Kiley (I)
Candidates: Richard Pan (D), Kevin Kiley (I)
2024 Election: D+8
Prediction: Richard Pan (D) +10

Kevin Kiley was elected as the Republican representative for California’s third district, but has since left his party and is running in the newly drawn 6th. He’ll face former state Senator Richard Pan, a pediatrician, who finished second in the jungle primary, in a district that should favor the Democrats.

New Hampshire 1st

Incumbent: Chris Pappas (D)
Candidates: 15 hopefuls
2024 Election: D+2
Prediction: Stefany Shaheen (D) +7

New Hampshire may have long held the nation’s first primary in presidential years, but this year it will be one of the last on Sept. 8. With Rep. Chris Pappas stepping aside for his Senate run, the field is wide open with all 15 candidates on both sides trailing to “Don’t Know” in the last public polls released earlier this year. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s daughter Portsmouth city councilor Stefany Shaheen has the advantage of name recognition. The district covering the state’s eastern half is relatively purple, going for Kamala Harris by 2 points in 2024.

New Jersey 9th

Incumbent: Nellie Pou (D)
Candidates: Nellie Pou (D), Rosie Pino (R)
2024 Election: R+1
Prediction: Nellie Pou (D) +6

This race is most notable because Trump won the district in 2024 by a point, but Rep. Nellie Pou split enough tickets to win by nearly 5% and should keep this seat safe for Democrats.

California 45th

Incumbent: Derek Tran (D)
Candidates: Derek Tran (D), Chuong Vo (R)
2024 Election: D+4
Prediction: Derek Tran (D) +5

The new California map makes the 45th a little more purple, but likely still favorable enough for Rep. Derek Tran to keep his seat in Congress.

California 48th

Incumbent: Darrell Issa (R)
Candidates: Marni Von Wilpert (D), Jim Desmond (R)
2024 Election: D+3
Prediction: Marni Von Wilpert (D) +5

Rep. Darrell Issa was one of the casualties of the California redistricting, electing not to run in the new Southern California district that favors Democrats. San Diego city councilwoman Marni Von Wilpert will be the favorite to flip the seat and replace him.

Nebraska 2nd

Incumbent: Don Bacon (R)
Candidates: Denise Powell (D), Brinker Harding (R)
2024 Election: D+5
Prediction: Denise Powell (D) +5

With Republican Don Bacon deciding not to run for reelection, Democrats see this Blue Dot district as a golden opportunity to pick up a seat. The region went for Kamala Harris by more than 4 points in 2024, and they’ll hope political organizer Denise Powell can defeat Trump’s chosen candidate Brinker Harding (one of the most Republican-sounding names I’ve ever heard) to flip the seat.

Washington 3rd

Incumbent: Marie Perez (D)
Candidates: Marie Perez (D), 8 others
2024 Election: R+3
Prediction: Marie Perez (D) +5

Another district won by Trump in 2024 also reelected its Democratic representative, Marie Perez. She’ll be one of nine candidates on the Aug. 4 nonpartisan primary in the southwest corner of the state. She’ll most likely be running against state Senator John Braun.

Nevada 3rd

Incumbent: Susie Lee (D)
Candidates: Susie Lee (D), Martin O’Donnell (R)
2024 Election: R+1
Prediction: Susie Lee (D) +4

Donald Trump won Susie Lee’s 3rd district in 2024 by less than a point, and she still won. As much as Republicans would like to flip this seat, which includes the southwest parts of Las Vegas, it’s unlikely that will change with Trump’s popularity at an all-time low.

New York 4th

Incumbent: Laura Gillen (D)
Candidates: Laura Gillen (D), Jeanine Driscoll (R)
2024 Election: D+1
Prediction: Laura Gillen (D) +4

New York’s 4th in Nassau County is a light blue district with a freshman incumbent in Laura Gillen, and she’ll face Hempstead tax receiver Jeanine Driscoll. 

New Jersey 7th

Incumbent: Tom Kean (R)
Candidates: Rebecca Bennett (D), Tom Kean (R)
2024 Election: R+1
Prediction: Rebecca Bennett (D) +4

Ah, New Jersey’s 7th district, whose representative Tom Kean was missing for nearly four months before finally returning home June 24 without explanation. Already expected to be one of the best opportunities for a Democratic pickup before his disappearance, he’ll have four months to convince voters they didn’t deserve an explanation for his prolonged absence. He faces Navy vet Rebecca Bennett in November. 

New York 19th

Incumbent: Josh Riley (D)
Candidates: Josh Riley (D), Peter Oberacker (R)
2024 Election: D+2
Prediction: Josh Riley (D) +4

Kamala Harris narrowly won this district covering the southeast part of upstate New York, but its constituents also voted for Republican Lee Zeldin for Governor four years ago. Freshman Democratic Rep. Josh Riley will look to fend off a challenge from state Senator Peter Oberacker.

New York 3rd

Incumbent: Tom Suozzi (D)
Candidates: Tom Suozzi (D), Michael LiPetri (R)
2024 Election: R+5
Prediction: Tom Suozzi (D) +4

New York’s third district on Long Island is the state’s richest, currently represented by Democrat Tom Suozzi despite going for Donald Trump by four points. Suozzi will face former Republican state assemblyman Mike LiPetri in November.

California 13th

Incumbent: Adam Gray (D)
Candidates: Adam Gray (D), Kevin Lincoln (R)
2024 Election: D+1
Prediction: Adam Gray (D) +3

The flip side of California’s redistricting is that some districts held by Democrats have gotten a little less blue. Adam Gray’s 13th is downright purple, but it still would be quite a surprise for former Stockton mayor Kevin Lincoln to unseat him.

Virginia 2nd

Incumbent: Jen Kiggans (R)
Candidates: Democratic nominee (D), Jen Kiggans (R)
2024 Election: R+.3
Prediction: Democratic primary winner (D) +3

Virginia Democrats may have lost their redistricting efforts due to state Supreme Court rulings, but there’s still a good chance to flip a seat in the 2nd district, where Republican Jen Kiggans won the last race by four points. It may be a rematch with former Rep. Elaine Luria, but the primary isn’t until Aug. 4. Luria’s chief Democratic rival is physician and lawyer Nila Devanath.

Arizona 6th

Incumbent: Juan Ciscomani (R)
Candidates: JoAnna Mendoza (D), Juan Ciscomani (R)
2024 Election: R+1
Prediction: JoAnna Mendoza (D) +3

This district is a bellwether for the nation, voting for Biden in 2020 and Trump in 2024. If Rep. Juan Ciscomani is able to hold onto his seat, it’ll be a bad night for Democrats. He’ll face Marine Corps vet JoAnna Mendoza, who’s running unopposed in the Democratic primary.

California 22nd

Incumbent: David Valadao (R)
Candidates: Randy Villegas (D), David Valadao (R)
2024 Election: R+2
Prediction: Randy Villegas (D) +3

Randy Villegas is attempting to flip California’s redrawn 22nd district in the state’s south-central region around Bakersfield after the Bernie/AOC-endorsed candidate beat a moderate Democrat in the primary. The party will hope he can win over the area’s working-class Latinos.

New Mexico 2nd

Incumbent: Gabriel Vasquez (D)
Candidates: Gabriel Vasquez (D), Gregory Cunningham (R)
2024 Election: R+2
Prediction: Gabriel Vasquez (D) +2

Another of the 13 districts currently represented by a Democrat that also went for Trump in 2024, New Mexico’s 2nd looks to be a close race according to the very little polling that’s been released (by Republicans).

Ohio 1st

Incumbent: Greg Landsman (D)
Candidates: Greg Landsman (D), Eric Conroy (R)
2024 Election: R+3
Prediction: Greg Landsman (D) +2

Ohio approved a new congressional map last year before Texas kicked off this year’s redistricting wave, which could alter the current 10-5 Republican advantage to 12-3. Democrat Greg Landsman’s Cinncinnati-based district got more rural, and now leans slightly Republican, but Landsman still has a good chance to hold his seat.

Michigan 7th

Incumbent: Tom Barrett (R)
Candidates: Bridget Brink (D), William Lawrence (D), Matt Maasdam (D), Tom Barrett (R)
2024 Election: R+1
Prediction: The Democratic primary winner (D) +2

Freshman Republican Rep. Tom Barrett is another target for Democrats in Sen. Elissa Slotkin’s old district in Michigan’s “thumb,” which he flipped in 2024—a district that has flip-flopped Obama-Trump-Biden-Trump. It’s ripe for another shift to the left, and three candidates are vying for the opportunity do just that: former ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink, organizer William Lawrence and retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam. The primary is Aug. 4.

Pennsylvania 7th

Incumbent: Ryan Mackenzie (R)
Candidates: Bob Brooks (D), Ryan Mackenzie (R)
2024 Election: R+3
Prediction: Bob Brooks (D) +2

Ryan Mackenzie flipped Pennsylvania’s 7th district at the eastern edge of the state in 2024, and Democrats are determined to flip it back. Firefighter Bob Brooks will get that chance in November after winning the primary with the backing of Gov. Josh Shapiro.

Texas 28th

Incumbent: Henry Cuellar (D)
Candidates:  Henry Cuellar (D), Tano Tijerina (R)
2024 Election: R+10
Prediction: Henry Cuellar (D) +2

Centrist Rep. Henry Cuellar has held off challenges from his left and will once again try to keep his seat in a district that voted for Trump in 2024. This time the district looks a little different (+10 Republican in the last presidential race), but I still wouldn’t bet against Cuellar as he campaigns against the Trump-endorsed Webb County judge Tano Tijerina, especially as Latino support for Trump has drastically dwindled.

Colorado 8th

Incumbent: Gabe Evans (R)
Candidates: Shannon Bird (D), Manny Rutinel (D), Gabe Evans (R)
2024 Election: R+2
Prediction: Manny Rutinel (D) +1

One of the closest congressional races in 2024 saw police lieutenant Gabe Evans unseating Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo by less than 3,000 votes. He’s now part of the problem solver caucus in Washington. State Rep. Manny Rutinel leads in recent primary polling over former state Rep. Shannon Bird for the chance to represent the district which runs north of Denver towards Fort Collins and voted for the winner in the last five presidential elections. 

Pennsylvania 10th

Incumbent: Scott Perry (R)
Candidates: Janelle Stelson (D), Scott Perry (R)
2024 Election: R+5
Prediction: Janelle Stelson (D) +1

Republican Rep. Scott Perry is a key target for Republicans in November, and limited polling shows his challenger, former TV anchor Janelle Stelson (pictured above) ahead in the race. 

Texas 34th

Incumbent: Vicente Gonzalez (D)
Candidates: Vicente Gonzalez (D), Eric Flores (R)
2024 Election: R+10
Prediction: Vicente Gonzalez (D) +1

Texas Republicans redrew the 34th district borders in an effort to flip the seat occupied by Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez at the very southeast tip of the state. It was already one of the 13 that went for Trump in 2024 (by 5 points). Now it covers an area Trump won by 11. Still, with a population that’s 90% Hispanic, that might not be enough to oust Gonzalez, who has served in Congress since 2017. A Republican-sponsored April poll had challenger Eric Flores up by just a point.

New York 17th

Incumbent: Michael Lawler (R)
Candidates: Cait Conley (D), Michael Lawler (R)
2024 Election: D+1
Prediction: Cait Conley (D) +1

In 2022 Mike Lawler was part of a surprising red wave in New York, becoming the first Republican to represent the 17th district—just north of the city—in three decades. In 2024, he held onto the seat with relative ease. He may face a bigger challenge in Army vet and former NSC director for counterterrorism Cait Conley this fall. There are still 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the district, which narrowly went for Kamala Harris. But Lawler will hope his moderate approach and a large war chest will be enough. 

Iowa 3rd

Incumbent: Zach Nunn (R)
Candidates: Sarah Trone Garriott (D), Zach Nunn (R)
2024 Election: R+4
Prediction: Sarah Trone Garriott (D) +1

With competitive races for Governor and Senate, three of the state’s four congressional districts—all held by Republicans—are in play this fall, and none more than the 3rd district, which includes the city of Des Moines and went for Trump by less than 5 points in 2024. Sarah Trone Garriott, a Lutheran minister and state Senator, will challenge Republican Rep. Zach Nunn. If she’s successful, it’ll mark the fourth time the seat has flipped since 2012.

Pennsylvania 8th

Incumbent: Rob Bresnahan (R)
Candidates: Paige Cognetti (D), Rob Bresnahan (R)
2024 Election: R+9
Prediction: Paige Cognetti (D) +1

Pennsylvania’s 8th district in the northeast corner of the state has voted for Trump three times, but has also voted for Democrats in the last two non-presidential elections. Scranton mayor Paige Cognetti hopes to keep that streak alive in her bid to unseat freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan, and a recent poll has her up by 1 point.

Iowa 1st

Incumbent: Marianette Miller-Meeks (R)
Candidates: Christina Bohannan (D), Marianette Miller-Meeks (R)
2024 Election: R+9
Prediction: Christina Bohannan (D) +1

Something’s happening in Iowa, but of course we thought that two years ago too. Still, Rep. Marianette Miller-Meeks won her last election by less than 800 votes to former state Rep. Christina Bohannan, who will be back on the ballot in this southeast Iowa district that voted for Trump by 8.5 points. 

Wisconsin 3rd

Incumbent: Derrick Van Orden (R)
Candidates: Emily Berge (D), Rebecca Cooke (D), Derrick Van Orden (R)
2024 Election: R+7
Prediction: Rebecca Cooke (D) +1

Rebecca Cooke, who owns a home goods store in Eau Claire and served the state’s economic development council, is hoping the third time’s the charm. She lost the primary in 2022 and won it 2024, only to lose to Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden by 11,000 votes. She’s ahead of fellow small-business owner and Eau Claire city council member Emily Berge in the little polling that’s been released in Wisconsin’s 3rd district.

Arizona 1st

Incumbent: David Schweikert (R)
Candidates: Marlene Galah-Woods (D), Rick McCartney (D), Amish Shah (D), Jonathan Treble (D), Joseph Chaplik (R), Jay Feely (R), John Trobough (R)
2024 Election: R+3
Prediction: Democratic winner (D) +.5

Four Democrats and three Republicans are vying for the seat vacated by Rep. David Schweikert, who’s running for governor. Covering the northeast suburbs of Phoenix and beyond, the 1st is Arizona’s wealthiest district and one that Trump won by three points. A rare open, competitive district has both parties energized.

Florida 25th

Incumbent: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
Candidates: Oliver Larkin (D), Jared Moskowitz (D), Dan Franzese (R), Raven Harrison (R), Joe Kaufman (R), George Moraitis (R), Scott Singer (R), Peter Jassenoff (L)
2024 Election: R+9
Prediction: Democratic primary winner (D) +.5

Florida Republicans just redrew the 25th to cover the slice of Florida between Miami and Fort Lauderdale (Trump +9 in 2024) instead of the coastal areas from Miami up to Boca Raton (Harris +5). Incumbent Debbie Wasserman Schultz decided to run in the much bluer 20th district (angering some Black Democrats), leaving the seat open. Moderate Rep. Jared Moskowitz from the old 23rd district will be the likely Democratic nominee over progressive Oliver Larkin, according to recent polling, while five Republicans are running for the seat.

Ohio 9th

Incumbent: Marcy Kaptur (D)
Candidates: Marcy Kaptur (R), Derek Merrin (R), Matthew Althaus (L)
2024 Election: R+11
Prediction: Marcy Kaptur (D) +.5

Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur has served Ohio’s 9th district for 43 years, which surprisingly only makes her the 34th longest-serving member in House of Geriatric Representatives. In 2024, she barely survived her first significant electoral challenge since unseating the district’s lone Republican in the last 80 years back in 1982. And now the district’s borders have been redrawn—though Trump handily won in 2024 on either map, making this one of the key seats Republicans are trying to flip. Their nominee, former state Rep. Derek Merrin, came within 3,000 votes two years ago, and will hope the new borders will make a difference.

North Carolina 1st

Incumbent: Don Davis (D)
Candidates: Don Davis (D), Laurie Buckhout (R)
2024 Election: R+12
Prediction: Don Davis (D) +.5

The North Carolina 1st district has been redrawn three times in the last four years with the most recent change by the Republican congressional supermajority making it a likely pickup for Republicans—Trump won the new map by nearly 12 points. If Democratic Rep. Don Davis can hold off Trump’s former assistant Sec. of Defense for Cyber Policy Laurie Buckhout, it will signal a bad election night for the GOP.

Pennsylvania 1st

Incumbent: Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Candidates: Bob Harvie (D), Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
2024 Election: D+.3
Prediction: Brian Fitzpatrick (R) +1

Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has often found himself at odds with the rest of his party—and especially its leader—and in 2024 ran 13 points ahead of the president in the first district in Bucks County along Pennsylvania’s eastern border. He’s hoping that’s enough in a district that hasn’t once gone for Trump. Former high school teacher and county commissioner Bob Harvie will be the latest Democrat to challenge Fitzpatrick and will need to ride a blue wave to win.

Maine 2nd

Incumbent: Jared Golden (D)
Candidates: Matthew Dunlap (D), Paul LePage (R)
2024 Election: R+10
Prediction: Paul LePage (R) +2

Maine’s 2nd district covers most everything above Portland and Augusta, comprising 92% of the state’s area, making it a mostly rural and Republican-leaning district (Trump won it by 9.5 points in 2024). Democratic Jared Golden has represented the district since 2019 but is retiring, making this a rare pickup opportunity for the GOP outside of redistricting. The two polls released this spring show very different numbers for the competing political veterans—former Republican governor Paul LePage and former secretary of state Democrat Matthew Dunlap—with LePage up by 10 or down by 8. 

North Carolina 11th

Incumbent: Chuck Edwards (R)
Candidates: Jamie Ager (D), Chuck Edwards (R)
2024 Election: R+5
Prediction: Chuck Edwards (R) +2

North Carolina’s two competitive races could be among the closest in the nation. The 11th covering the state’s Western borders has a new map, but the demographic makeup hasn’t changed much—both groups of voters split their tickets in 2024 between Trump and Democratic Gov. Josh Stein. In fact, the new map seems slightly kinder to the Dems. Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards has won his last two races pretty handily, but Democrats are exited about their candidate Jamie Ager, a fourth-generation farmer raised on his family’s Hickory Nut Gap Farm. 

Florida 14th

Incumbent: Kathy Castor (D)
Candidates: Kathy Castor (D), 9 Republicans, Brian Lambert (L)
2024 Election: R+10
Prediction: Republican primary winner (R) +2

Rep. Kathy Castor has represented a solidly blue district around Tampa since 2013—winning her last election by 15 points—but Republican redistricting will present her with a quite a challenge in keeping that seat. The new map preferred Trump by 10 points in 2024. The power of the incumbency and an unpopular president may not be enough. The Republican primary on Aug. 18 remains wide open.

Colorado 5th

Incumbent: Jeff Crank (R)
Candidates: Jessica Killin (D), Joe Reagan (D), Jeff Crank (R)
2024 Election: R+9
Prediction: Jeff Crank (R) +3

It wasn’t that long ago that Colorado was a purple state, but it’s moved steadily left and the winner of tomorrow’s Democratic primary will try to make the 5th District in Colorado Springs competitive. The city is home to a large number of evangelical Christian organizations like Focus on the Family. But it’s more urban than most Republican districts and remains a stretch goal for Democrats.

Virginia 1st

Incumbent: Rob Wittman (R)
Candidates: Elizabeth Beggs (D), Salaam Bhatti (D), Tim Cywinski (D), Jason Knapp (D), Ericka Kopp (D), Shannon Taylor (D), Melvin Tull (D), Rob Wittman (R)
2024 Election: R+5
Prediction: Rob Wittman (R) +4

Rep. Rob Wittman has served “America’s First District”—covering the historic towns of Williamsburg, Jamestown and Yorktown—since 2007, and has been in Republican hands since 1977. Virginia’s redistricting attempts were blocked by the courts, and it’ll be up to voters to try to flip the seat, but Wittman won his district by 13 points in the last election.

Florida 22nd

Incumbent: Lois Frankel (D)
Candidates: Pia Dandiya (D), Kaysia Earley (D), 10 Republicans
2024 Election: R+10
Prediction: The Republican primary winner (R) +4

Longtime Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel is running in the 23rd district, leaving this recently redrawn seat open and a prime target for the GOP. Like the 14th, Trump won this new district by 10 points, attracting GOP candidates like flies to a pile of gerrymandered bullshit—10 candidates on are on the Republican ballot this August with Michael Carbonara leading all comers in fundraising. The winner will likely face a former teacher and Apple exec Pia Dandiya, who will have her work cut out for her to hold the seat for the Dems.

Texas 35th

Incumbent: Greg Casar (D)
Candidates: Johnny Garcia (D), Carlos De La Cruz (R)
2024 Election: R+10
Prediction: Carlos De La Cruz (R) +4

There’s a theme here in that nearly all potential Republican pickups are the result of the latest round of gerrymandering, and that includes Texas’s 35th. Incumbent Democrat Greg Casar (D), who won the old map by 35 points in 2024, will be running in the safer 37th district, leaving Bexar County deputy sheriff Johnny Garcia to try to hold onto the seat in a district that Trump won by 10. The Republican nominee, Air Force vet Carlos De La Cruz, will be favored to pickup a seat for the GOP.

South Carolina 1st

Incumbent: Nancy Mace (R)
Candidates: Nancy Lacore (D), Jenny Honeycutt (R), Margo Ellis (Alliance), Bill Reeside (L)
2024 Election: R+13
Prediction: Jenny Honeycutt (R) +4

Nancy Mace—who [takes deep breath] “said one of her ‘favorite things’ to watch was people and their families being detained by ICE; in September she tried to punish Rep. Ilhan Omar (R-Minn.) for some nonexistent hate speech; shortly thereafter she suggested to pregnant women a drug with documented dangers for pregnant people; in October she reportedly screamed at TSA agents when they didn’t meet her with an immediate security detail at the airport; and last month, she proposed to update the Constitution and kick naturalized citizens out of Congress”—failed in her attempt to become South Carolina’s governor and will be leaving Congress. The open seat is a longshot for Democrats, but another Nancy, retired Navy vet Nancy Lacore, who was fired by Pete Hesgeth, is giving it a shot in this coastal district.

Iowa 2nd

Incumbent: Ashley Hinson (R)
Candidates: Lindsay James (D), Joe Mitchell (R)
2024 Election: R+10
Prediction: Joe Mitchell (R) +4

The final of the three competitive races in Iowa may the toughest for the Democratic candidate despite the seat being open, thanks to incumbent Ashley Hinson running for the Senate. The 2nd district covers the northwest quadrant of the state and went for Trump by 10 points. State representative and Presbyterian minister Lindsay James faces 29-year-old Republican Joe Mitchell, the youngest person ever elected to the Iowa house (he was 21).

Michigan 4th

Incumbent: Bill Huizenga (R)
Candidates: Diop Harris II (D), Sean McCann (D), Bill Huizenga (R), Philip Tanis (R)
2024 Election: R+6
Prediction: Bill Huizenga (R) +4

Democratic candidate Sean McCann released a poll earlier this month showing a three-point lead on incumbent Bill Huizenga, giving Democrats hope at flipping this western Michigan district. But Huizenga won his last two races by about 12 points each.

Montana 1st

Incumbent: Ryan Zinke (R)
Candidates: Sam Forstag (D), Aaron Flint (R), Nick Sheedy (L), Kimberly Persico (I)
2024 Election: R+11
Prediction: Bill Huizenga (R) +5

Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke decided not to run for reelection this year, leaving an open seat in the more competitive of Montana’s two districts. Former smokejumper and Democratic nominee Sam Forstag will square off with Republican radio host Aaron Flint in the western district that Trump carried by 11.

Virginia 5th

Incumbent: John McGuire (R)
Candidates: Suzanne Krzyzanowski (D), Tom Perriello (D), Robert Tracinski (D), John McGuire (R), Melanie Lucero (R)
2024 Election: R+12
Prediction: John McGuire (R) +6

Freshman Republican Rep. John McGuire won his last race by 15 points, so it’s unlikely that Democrats can flip Virginia’s 5th District. Three Democratic candidates are going to try—Suzanne Krzyzanowski, Tom Perriello, and Robert Tracinski are on the primary ballot for Aug. 4.

Florida 9th

Incumbent: Darren Soto (D)
Candidates: Darren Soto (D), Ben Butler (R), Marcus Carter (R), Thomas Chalifoux (R), Dan Green (R), Jorge Martinez (R), Howard Steven Rance (R), Justin Story (R)
2024 Election: R+18
Prediction: Republican primary winner (R) +8

Florida’s 9th was solidly blue before the recent gerrymander. Now it’s an area that went for Trump by nearly 18 points, and the incumbent Democratic, Rep. Darren Soto, faces his biggest challenge. Seven Republicans are running for the nomination on Aug. 18.

Missouri 5th

Incumbent: Emanuel Cleaver (D)
Candidates: Emanuel Cleaver (D), Micah Beebe (R), Rick Brattin (R), Taylor Burks (R), Brett Hueffmeier (R), Berton A. Knox (R), Brad Patty (R)
2024 Election: R+18
Prediction: Republican primary winner (R) +9

Gov. Mike Kehoe hopes to flip Missouri’s 5th district covering parts of Kansas City, along with rural parts of the state, through its mid-decade gerrymander. It went from Harris +24 to Trump +18. Incumbent Emanuel Cleaver will face the winner of the Aug. 4 Republican primary.

Alabama 2nd

Incumbent: Shomari Figures (D)
Candidates: Shomari Figures (D), Rhett Marques (R), Joshua McKee(R), James Richardson(R), Christian Horn(R), Hampton Harris(R), David Mathews (R)
Prediction: Republican primary winner (R) +10

Soon after the Supreme Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act, Alabama wasted no time in stripping its Black citizens of their political power, completely redrawing the 2nd District represented by Shomari Figures into the southeast corner of the state. Figures will run against the winner of the Aug. 11 primary.

Texas 32nd

Incumbent: Julie Johnson (D)
Candidates: Dan Barrios (D), Jace Yarbrough (R), Charles Harper (I)
2024 Election: R+18
Prediction: Jace Yarbrough (R) +10

Yet another newly gerrymandered Republican district, Texas’s 32nd went from Harris +32 to Trump +18. Richardson city councilman Dan Barrios will put up a fight for the Democrats, but Republican trial lawyer Jace Yarbrough is favored to flip the seat. 

Tennessee 9th

Incumbent: Steve Cohen (D)
Candidates: 10 candidates
2024 Election: R+21
Prediction: Republican primary winner (R) +10

Tennessee’s mid-decade gerrymander turned the 9th District into a solidly red seat, and four Democrats, four Republicans and two independent candidates will compete beginning with an Aug. 6 primary.

Louisiana 6th

Incumbent: Cleo Fields (D)
Candidates: Cleo Fields (D), Monique Appeaning (R), Larry Davis (R), Christian Johnson (R), Peter Williams (R)
Prediction: Republican candidate (R) +10

The Supreme Court nullified another key piece of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais, leading Gov. Jeff Landry to cancel an election already in process to alter the map—something that had never been done in modern history. The result was the disappearance of a majority Black district and the likely unseating of Democratic Rep. Cleo Fields. A new nonpartisan primary will be held on Nov. 3 with the two top vote getters appearing on the general election ballot a week later.

Texas 9th

Incumbent: Al Green (D)
Candidates: Leticia Gutierrez (D), Alex Mealer (R), Roy Morales (L)
2024 Election: R+20
Prediction: Alex Mealer (R) +12

One way or the other Democratic incumbent Rep. Al Green will be leaving Congress, making Washington a little more boring. He lost his primary in nearby Texas 18th to Christian Menefee.  That leaves community outreach director Leticia Gutierrez to defend the gerrymandered 9th District against Army vet and investment banker Alex Mealer. But the new map voted for Trump by nearly 20 points and will almost certainly gain the GOP a seat.