Like last year, there are a couple of nominees that seem like locks, and I’ve labeled them as such. I also took the liberty of adding my personal picks, despite my ill-informed yet very critical mind, as well as the dark horse contenders. I use the “ill-informed” descriptor because I’m not a performer. In fact, I couldn’t even get a chorus role in any of my high school’s productions. So, I settled for doing makeup and talking shit about the talent backstage. That is, in essence, what I’m doing here. And remember, I don’t have the pocketbook to go to every show, but I did get to go to most of the top contenders. So, here we go!
Dark Horse: Buena Vista Social Club. From the book to the performances to that get-up-out-of-your-seat music, it’s a deserving musical to be sure. If you get to go, you’ll probably count it as one of the most fun shows you’ve ever been to. The only flaw? Marc Platt produced it. Sorry! I’ll never look at him the same after I learned he flew across the country to scold Rachel Zegler about being anti-genocide.
Best Play
The Nominees:
- English
- The Hills of California
- John Proctor Is the Villain
- Oh, Mary!
- Purpose
Bet on: Oh, Mary! Sequestered by a closeted Abraham Lincoln, Cole Escola’s substance-driven, cabaret-aspiring Mary Todd Lincoln devotes her days in the White House to drinking heavily, waxing demented about a career on the stage, and psychologically tormenting her escort and solitary friend, Louise. Oh, Mary! opened at the Lucille Lortel theater in February 2024, then made the jump to Broadway that July, where its run has been extended not once, not twice, but three times. And it’s somehow maintained a longer buzz than its titular character. Frankly, if it doesn’t take the trophy, I’ll shriek: Oh, Tony! You boob. IYKYK.
Would love to see it: Oh, Mary! It’s the only Broadway show I have now seen three times. And this is Pride month, after all. It would be downright homophobic to rob it of this award.
Dark Horse: There is none, because Oh, Mary! should win. And if it doesn’t? Not in my world. Not in the world I’m living in.
Best Costumes of a Play/Musical
Play:
- Brenda Abbandandolo, Good Night, and Good Luck
- Marg Horwell, The Picture of Dorian Gray
- Rob Howell, The Hills of California
- Holly Pierson, Oh, Mary!
- Brigitte Reiffenstuel, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Bet on: Oh, Mary! Come on. Let us recall this interview with the show’s wig designer, Leah J. Loukas. The costuming includes the infamous Mary wig that basically is the entire show. The knowledge that Loukas created three of them (including one exclusively for PR appearances) is just genius.
Would love to see it: Oh, Mary! See “Bet on.”
Dark Horse: Between the time jumps of The Hills of California, the seamless execution of outfitting 26 characters (all played by a singular person) in The Picture of Dorian Gray, and the fact that the only thing worth lauding about Stranger Things: The First Shadow is the costuming and prosthetics, the “Dark Horse” category is looking like the Kentucky Derby.
Musical:
- Dede Ayite, Buena Vista Social Club
- Gregg Barnes, Boop!
- Clint Ramos, Maybe Happy Ending
- Paul Tazewell, Death Becomes Her
- Catherine Zuber, Just in Time
Bet on: Well, Paul Tazewell just earned an Oscar for Wicked, making him the first Black man ever to win the category. If he takes home a Tony in the same year, no one could argue that he didn’t deserve it. If—in some case—he doesn’t, he’s still halfway to EGOT status thanks to his 2016 Tony for a little show called Hamilton.
Would love to see it: Buena Vista Social Club. Capturing 1940s and 1950s-era Havana without looking like a bordering-on racist aisle of a Spirit Halloween is no small feat. If anyone could do it with aplomb, it’s Dede Ayite. The cast of colorfully outfitted characters are empowered to move and grove all without distracting the audience from what matters: the story.
Dark Horse: Just in Time. It’s impossible not to be charmed by its take on old Hollywood glamour. The crinolines! The pin curls! The lone Canadian tuxedo! It doesn’t just take you places, it transcends time.
Best Actor
Play:
- George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
- Cole Escola, Oh, Mary!
- Jon Michael Hill, Purpose
- Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face
- Harry Lennix, Purpose
- Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow
Bet on: Cole Escola. I’ve never seen someone so committed to embodying the full spectrum of comedy the way Escola does as Mary Todd Lincoln. From the pitch-perfect deliveries to the physicality Escola must pull off, I actually can’t imagine the level of exhaustion they must experience after every single show. Meanwhile, by the time the audience is filing out of the theater, they’re completely exhilarated. That’s the mark of a capital-P performer. They’re also the first non-binary nominee in both the Best Actor and Best Play categories.
Would love to see it: Again, Cole Escola.
Dark Horse: I don’t even want to imagine one, actually. But if I had to, give it to Jon Michael Hill or Daniel Dae Kim.
Musical:
- Darren Criss, Maybe Happy Ending
- Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw
- Tom Francis, Sunset Boulevard
- Jonathan Groff, Just in Time
- James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World
- Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins
Bet on: Darren Criss. The man has paid his dues. Not only has Criss been a Broadway mainstay since 2012, but his portrayal of a retired robot is anything but mechanical.
Would love to see it: Jonathan Groff. Listen, I know he won last year, but if there was ever a case for a repeat win, it’s Groff as Bobby Darin in Just in Time. He doesn’t miss a step, a note, or an opportunity to rizz the pants right off of you. At one point, he asked a man seated at the end of my row to dance with him, and by the time that man sat back down, he was blushing. I, however, was seething. I don’t care if you should never sit front row (aka the splash zone) of whatever production he’s in without a waterproof poncho. There is literally no one more universally endearing (or undeniably talented) on Broadway right now.
Dark horse: Tom Francis. I imagine it would be tough to play opposite a tour-de-force like Scherzinger. I have to hand it to him: the man holds his own all the way through.
Best Actress
Play:
- Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California
- Mia Farrow, The Roommate
- LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose
- Sadie Sink, John Proctor Is the Villain
- Sarah Snook, The Picture of Dorian Gray
Bet on: Sarah Snook. The show definitely isn’t for everyone, but hey, playing twenty-six characters requires the kind of technical skills (not to mention emotional and psychological stamina) only a truly talented performer possesses.
Would love to see it: Sadie Sink. As Shelby Holcomb, a high school student who has returned from a mysterious three-month absence after sleeping with her best friend’s boyfriend, Sink makes her rage palpable and her pain particularly poignant. While there’s certainly time for this 23-year-old to be nominated (and win) for something else later in her career, I would be remiss not to note that she’s hands-down the best part of John Proctor Is the Villain.
Dark Horse: Laura Donnelly. I mean, I’ve loved her since The Ferryman in 2018. She’s overdue for a Tony, technically.
Musical:
- Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her
- Audra McDonald, Gypsy
- Jasmine Amy Rogers, Boop!
- Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Boulevard
- Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her
Bet on: Nicole Scherzinger. Ironically enough, the Patti LuPone of it all might’ve just given Audra McDonald’s campaign a bump. I, for one, would love to see her add another trophy to her collection. But voters are also dazzled by a first-time nominee story—namely, in this category. Just ask Jodie Comer. Speaking of! You can sometimes predict who’s likely to take home the trophy based on the Olivier Awards (the British equivalent of the Tony Awards). Comer won the Olivier, then the Tony for Prima Facie in 2023. In 2024, Scherzinger won the Olivier for Sunset Blvd. so…
Would love to see it: Literally every single one of these women.
Dark Horse: Jasmine Amy Rogers. While she is very gifted, I think there would be a riot if anyone but McDonald or Scherzingner wins this category. Seriously, what’s the Broadway equivalent of burning cars? Falling to one’s knees and breaking out in song?
Best Revival
Play:
- Romeo + Juliet
- Yellow Face
- Thornton Wilder’s Our Town
- Eureka Day
Bet on: Eureka Day. As woefully stupid people continue to wage war on the public’s logic (and, in many cases, win), reviving Eureka Day was a salient move. The play follows a private California elementary school’s response to a mumps outbreak among its student body. You can see where this is going. Chaos ensues when the administration and parents have differing views as to how to handle the crisis…
Would love to see it: Yellow Face. Daniel Dae Kim…my man, my man, my man. In a timely turn as a playwright who casts a white actor in an Asian role by accident (after denouncing yellowface casting in another play), Kim captivates. While it helps that the book is an incisive take on race and representation in art, Kim (and his wry wit) really sells it. Basically, this is kind of his Tár.
Dark horse: Yellow Face. Kim is the first Asian nominee in the Best Actor category. While it seems totally likely that Escola will take home the gold there, the Best Revival is about as good a consolation prize as any.
Musical:
- Floyd Collins
- Gypsy
- Sunset Blvd.
- Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Bet on: Sunset Blvd. This category is pretty much just Gypsy v. Sunset Blvd. In one corner, you have six-time Tony-winner Audra McDonald doing what she’s done for decades (read: delivering a lights-out performance). And in the other, you have Broadway newcomer, Nicole Scherzinger, who’s doing something on stage that—like her or not—will be remembered for a very long time. There’s no other way to say it: Scherzinger was this season’s arrival. She is the show.
Would love to see it: Sunset Blvd. While I am always happy to see my fellow Audra, I am not theater-kid enough to enjoy Gypsy all the way through, unfortunately. Certainly, it’s not any of its sublime ensemble’s fault. Truth be told, by the top of the second act, I was antsy due, in part, to the source material. I don’t know what it says about me, but I just couldn’t connect. Luckily, many of my friends—theater-kid and otherwise—agreed. As for Sunset Blvd., well, I felt the entire spectrum of human emotion sitting in the theater.
Dark horse: Gypsy. Let it be known that in no other scenario would I call this show a dark horse.
Best Original Score
- Death Becomes Her
- Maybe Happy Ending
- Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical
- Real Women Have Curves: The Musical
- Dead Outlaw
Bet on: Maybe Happy Ending. A show about two droids falling in love in Seoul deserves a sound all its own. Will Aronson and Hue Park delivered. Two parts jazz, one part Burt Bacharach, and a generous portion of pop, a campaign for an early release of the cast recording was launched immediately after the show’s debut in October 2024.
Would love to see it: Death Becomes Her. There’s a reason at least one of this show’s songs (read: ‘Tell Me, Ernest”) is currently having a viral moment on TikTok. Quite simply: the soundtrack is fun as all hell to sing (or lip sync). It’s got everything from deranged ditties about career failure and cosmetic surgery to heart-rending odes to friendship. What more could you want from a show?
Dark Horse: Real Women Have Curves: The Musical. I have two words for you: “Flying Away.” Here’ a few more: It’s been less than two months since the show premiered on Broadway, yet it picked up two nominations and a ton of rave reviews. It’s all heart and chutzpah. Call it Seabiscuit!
The 78th Tony Awards air on Sunday, June 8 at 8 p.m. ET, and will be broadcast on CBS.
