The Shock Iowa Poll—Like the Election at Large—Is About Abortion
On Election Day, when asked about abortion, Trump said, “Just stop talking about that.” But as a new Iowa poll from deep-red Iowa proves, it's been the defining issue of the election.
Photo: Getty Images AbortionPolitics 2024 Election
Over the weekend, the Des Moines Register’s long-time, legendary pollster, J. Ann Selzer, put Democratic nominee Kamala Harris three points ahead of Donald Trump in the deep-red state of Iowa. Previously, in September, Trump held a four-point lead over Harris, and before that, in June, Trump held an 18-point lead over President Biden. Selzer, sometimes called the “Outlier Queen,” is rarely wrong, even when her pre-election polls often break with the mainstream—as they did when she predicted Trump’s 2016 victory and Barack Obama’s victory during the 2008 Democratic caucus. It’s still anyone’s guess how Election Day will go, but it’s fair to say Selzer’s final poll bodes… not great for Trump!
And there’s a key, driving force behind this seismic, potentially election-deciding shift: Iowa’s six-week abortion ban, which the state Supreme Court approved at the end of June, and consequently took effect at the end of July. Selzer’s poll showed that women ages 65 and older—which is a securely Republican demographic—supported Harris over Trump by a 63 to 28% margin. Women overall favored Harris by 20 points, while men favored Trump by four points. “You need to win with women more than you lose with men, and we’re seeing that in these data,” Selzer told The Bulwark podcast this week.